In short, no. The math just does not add up. You rely on the dealer going on to make blackjack enough times in the long term to have made your even money blackjack even money move worthwhile. But in truth, this will not happen.
Let’s take a six-deck blackjack game when you have a made blackjack, and the dealer shows an ace. With 96 cards with a value of ten (tens through kings), there is a 30.7 percent chance that the dealer has one of them to make a blackjack.
So, that’s a 30.7% chance your hand will be a push. Far better, you might think, to ask for even money and guarantee your profit. Wrong.
Look at the bigger picture: there is a 69.3% chance the even money blackjack dealer’s downcard is NOT valued 10, meaning this is the state of play if you do nothing:
7% of the time dealer has blackjack, and you win 0 profit units
3% of the time dealer does not have blackjack, and you win 1.5 units (a 3:2 payout)
Average these eventualities, and you will find your blackjack hand is worth around 1.04 units. So, if you stake $10, your blackjack hand expected profit value in the long term, at least when the dealer upcard is an ace, is $10.40. Is it any wonder the casinos are keen for you to take even money and settle for $10 every time?
The casinos are not being sneaky, of course. Just cute. They have to make money to survive, so rules like this give them a tiny blackjack house edge to help them profit.
Play at TwinSpires Casino and test out your blackjack skills. You may not be offered the even money rule online, but there will be tables offering insurance to all players if the dealer shows an ace. Be smart, and pass on the offer. Good luck at the tables!